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Creators/Authors contains: "Martin, E.R."

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  1. This study assesses projections from 24 CMIP5 models of number, duration, and severity ofpluvial and drought events utilizing 6-month standardized precipitation index. Increased variability ofstandardized precipitation index is projected globally. More frequent, longer lasting, and stronger pluvialsare projected in wet regions, and the same for droughts in dry regions. Worsening pluvials and droughtsare most apparent in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and the Americas, respectively. Uniquely, thisstudy investigates pluvials and droughts in locations where the precipitation trend is of the opposite sign.In drying regions, 40% of grid points project an increase in number and 65% project an increase in durationof severe pluvials. Projections for severe drought events in wetting regions show similar projections. Asprecipitation trends alone do not provide information about pluvial and drought characteristics this studyhas important implications for planning and resilience. 
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